Shentong Express (002468): Cost optimization and efficiency improvement will continue to be realized
Event: Shentong Express released the 2018 annual report and achieved 170 operating income.
100 million (+34.
4%); net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 20.
500 million (+37.
7%), 武汉夜生活网 to achieve net profit after deduction.
200 million (+24.
Company profit investment income 4.
10,000 yuan, mainly for disposal of 9% equity income of Fengchao Technology.
The company intends to distribute a cash dividend of 5 yuan (including tax) to all shareholders for every 10 shares, with a dividend rate of approximately 37.
Volume increases and prices fall, and the decline in single-piece revenue has expanded.
The company completed business volume 51 in 2018.
100 million pieces (+31.
1%). Since the second half of the year, the company’s volume growth has returned to a high growth track, far exceeding 25.
The growth rate of the industry is 8%, and the growth rate of Q1 to Q4 is 18.
In terms of single-piece revenue, the long-term courier business ASP of the statement caliber company was 3.
27 yuan (+1.
4%), excluding the distribution fee ASP is 1.
56 yuan (-0.
6%), after excluding the impact of consolidation, we estimate that ASP is about 3.
1 yuan (-3%).
In terms of unit cost, the unit cost of the report caliber is 2.
74 yuan (+4.
1%), after adjusting the self-employment rate, the unit cost may decrease by about 10%.
Pioneer’s single-piece gross profit 0.
53 yuan, about 6 points lower than last year.
18Q4 performance was under pressure.
The company achieved revenue of 59 in the fourth quarter.
100 million (+44.
4%), net profit 4.
400 million (+21.
1%), taking into account the impact of 17Q4 shortcut impairment, the company’s comparable caliber profit growth rate is about 10%.
In our judgment, Shentong mainly improved the price in the process of recovering the volume growth rate. At the same time, the management cost and expenditure increased after the acquisition of the transfer center, and it took time to release the cost and efficiency improvement. The self-employment rate will increase, and the cost reduction will be gradually realized.
As of the end of 18 years, there were 68 transshipment centers in Shentong Network, of which 60 were self-operated transshipment centers, and the self-employment rate increased from 74% at the time of the interim report to 88%.
In terms of transportation equipment, the company’s own mainline vehicles were 2,941, and the self-operated rate of mainline transportation vehicles increased from 58% at the time of the interim report to 66%.
The increase in self-employment rate is conducive to the company’s subsequent capital expenditure expansion, and further improves the company’s operating efficiency and reduces costs.
Profit forecast and rating.
After acquiring the transfer center to increase the self-employment rate and increase the investment in transportation and transfer equipment, the growth of Shentong’s business volume has 西安耍耍网 returned to a healthy track. The optimization of the cost side will continue to be realized this year.
We believe that the decline in the company’s cost side can hedge the downward trend of the industry’s ASP. It is expected that the EPS for 2019-2021 will be 1.
38 yuan, 1.
63 yuan, 1.
93 yuan, corresponding to the current PE is 18 respectively.
4x, maintain “Buy” rating.
Risk warning: price wars intensify, e-commerce growth accelerates, and labor costs increase significantly