Moutai, Guizhou (600519): The dust of connected transactions is settled.

Moutai, Guizhou (600519): The dust of connected transactions is settled.
Investment Highlights: Events.Recently, the company issued the “Announcement on Subsidiary Sales 西安耍耍网 of Products to Related Parties” and “Announcement on the Reply of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Supervision Work Letter”.  Announced wine sales accounted for a relatively small amount, and the purity was the same as that of unaffiliated dealers.According to the announcement, Guizhou Moutai Co., Ltd. sells products to Moutai Group including Moutai and series of wines.The transaction amount in 2019 does not exceed 5% (US $ 5.6 billion) of the company’s net assets at the end of 2018.It accounted for 736 of the company’s operating income in 2018.3.9 billion 7.60%, according to this proportion is expected to sell 2470 tons of Moutai (2018 sales of 3.25 ounces * 7.60% = 2470 tons).Calculated based on the 14% increase in revenue in 2019 formulated in the 2018 annual report, accounting for 6 of the 2019 revenue plan.67%.The price of products 深圳桑拿网 sold to Moutai Group is the same as the purchase price or the same pricing principle of other unaffiliated dealers, and the settlement method is the same as that of other unaffiliated dealers.  Short-term price control is the top priority, and the announcement scheme does not require shareholder voting to be the most efficient.According to the company’s official website information, on the evening of August 7, Guizhou Moutai Liquor Co., Ltd. merged the market work conference to deploy the current Moutai liquor market work.This is the second time since April 2017 that the company has participated in a special meeting on price issues.The problem of rising prices has caused great concern of the provincial government of Guizhou Province.Since the end of July, the Guizhou Provincial Party Committee and the Provincial Government have held several consecutive meetings on the issue of the price of Moutai wine. The main leaders of the Provincial Party Committee have given instructions to strictly prevent the excessive speculation of Moutai.The company’s leaders stated that “the price should be controlled, not stabilized”, and more market launches should be made. The released plans and sales results are linked monthly, and new and old channels complement each other.  The proportion of joint ventures that can be directly managed has increased, but the growth rate is expected to continue in the second half of the year.According to the 2018 annual report and the 2019 interim report, the number of Moutai distributors of the company continued to decline from 2018 to the end of June 2019, gradually reducing 536.Assuming that all Moutai distributors are roughly evenly distributed and calculated based on the total sales volume of Moutai in 2018, we expect the re-limitation to be above 5,721 tons.It is estimated that the expected 2470 tons in this related transaction, and the planned sales volume of Maotai in 2019 is 31,000 tons, and the direct marketing volume accounts for at least more than 10% ((5721-2470) / 31000).The company’s direct sales accounted for only 3 in the first half of the year.9%, we expect the direct sales system to accelerate in the third quarter.In the first half of the year, the company’s total operating income and net profit attributable to mothers increased every year.80% and 26.56%, higher than the 16 previously expected by wind.27% and 22.20% means that the growth rate may slow down further in the second half of the year.We believe that in the second half of the year, in order to control the price of ordinary Feitai Moutai, increasing the proportion of sales may reduce the proportion of non-standard products such as the zodiac, fine products and vintage wine.  Profit forecast and investment advice.From the perspective of industry trends, we believe that the liquor industry is still in a period of steady rise.As an industry leader, Moutai, Guizhou has a strong brand influence.We believe that (1) the company’s connected transaction dust is settled, and under the multi-channel construction of direct sales, e-commerce, and KA, the channel price control ability is improved, and the certainty of performance is further improved; (2) the difference between the company’s channel price and the ex-factory price is still affordable, and the long-termJudging from the ex-factory price, there is still considerable room for price increase; (3) The actual production capacity of the company’s Moutai base wine in 2016-2018 was 3.93, 4.28, 4.In the 97 years and the first half of 2019, the output of Moutai base wine and series of base wines increased compared with the same period of the previous year, which is the basis for subsequent sales growth.Based on the above, we expect the company to EPS33 in 2019-2021.93/40.36/47.94 yuan / share, comparable company’s 2019 PE assessment23.44 times.Given the company 27-34 times PE in 2019, the 6-month reasonable value range is 916.11-1153.62 yuan, maintain the “preliminary market” rating.  risk warning.The price is too high and too fast to restrain the bottle opening rate. The local government raised the consumption tax base.